Survey Press launch took place on September 18, 2014, organized by the Institute for Strategic Studies. Ukrainian events in London is grateful to Ian Morgan for attending and preparing this summary for our website.
Ukraine featured prominently in the latest Strategic Survey issued by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The Annual Survey covers the key global geopolitical and strategic issues facing the world today. Whilst the report itself is a well-regarded and extensive piece of analysis covering the situation globally, the points of relevance to the current crisis in Ukraine are the following:
- The events of the last year in Ukraine have been a shock to the prevailing political and security order.
- The conflict has fueled concerns about a new Cold War.
- The events of 2014 have given rise, unfortunately, to the impression that Ukraine was a “prize” to be fought over by Russia and the West.
- Part to the problem stems from the political environment and attitudes within Russia, where the domestic political environment has experienced a narrowing due to new repressive laws and Kremlin spin doctoring, and where Ukraine is perceived more as the “near at home” than the “near abroad.”
- A “Versailles complex” amongst many Russians has coloured their view of the EU and NATO expansion, irrespective of the fact that the EU accession countries themselves who wanted to join these clubs. Nonetheless, the possibility that Ukraine would follow suit was unacceptable to Russia, and the catalyst for intervention.
- The West is rightly alarmed by Russian interventionism, and sanctions are the right response.
- When asked about whether Ukraine was likely to end up as a failed state, Samuel Charap, the Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, did not believe that to be a likely scenario. However it will depend on whether Russia intends to honour the cease-fire and in the longer term whether Ukraine can reform itself.
- In order for there to be a long term solution to the crisis, a second post-Cold War settlement will have to be crafted. In other words, it is hard to imagine that genuine stability will result without a long-term solution to the “Ukraine question.”
For more information please check the official press statement.
Institute for Stratgic Studies http://www.iiss.org/